Euro Commodity Crosses Continue to Get Hit

1. EURAUD
2. EURCAD
3. EURNZD

EURAUD The long term trend, as indicated by the nearly 9 year trendline, is down (see last weeks chart).  The long term triangle offers the best perspective.  Price should come down to test 1.6304 in the E wave of the triangle (triangles have 5 waves A thru E).  Although we favor the downside over the longer term, a break below 1.6428 is a 5th wave from 1.7041 would set the stage for a corrective rally attempt.  1.6621 is initial resistance.

EURCAD We have been bearish EURCAD due to the 9 year trendline and bearish divergence with oscillators on the weekly.  The monthly chart presents the most compelling bearish case.  This months candle will end as a shooting star a  bearish reversal formation that topped out at the 9 year trendline.  The next major support level is the January low at 1.5082 with a break lower targeting the August 2006 high at 1.4592.  This is obviously a longer term outlook.

EURCAD With the 5 wave decline from July 2006 to January of this year, the trend is down.  The 3 wave correction from 1.8448 has been succeeded by weakness that may be the beginning of a third wave decline.  A break below 1.8448 confirms this suspicion and sets the stage for an attack on the 61.8% of 1.6326-2.1191 at 1.8185.  The 3/28 high at 1.8853 should offer resistance.   

Table 

CCI(20) 21 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish                                                   

RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold

MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(21) 21 day Momentum
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish

*measured against past 3 months

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