1. EURAUD
2. EURCAD
3. EURNZD
EURAUD EURAUD declined right to the trendline from 1.5616 (12/6/05 low) and has since rallied. The pair has trade in a range for nearly two months between 1.6579 and 1.6961. The extent of the range is illustrated by the tightness of the Bollinger bands (daily). As such, the probability of a breakout is increased. The bias is neutral until one of the aforementioned range extremes is broken. Daily oscillators are increasing (most notable CCI increasing from below -100), which favor longs.
EURCAD The daily chart shows a rising wedge from the 1.3495 low on 2/28. EURCAD has declined from the upper end of the wedge over the last month and is tested the support line yesterday (1.4060). A break below supports the case for an eventual re-test of 1.3495. In fact, the longer term picture shows that the pair is in a 5 wave bear sequence from the 2004 high at 1.6374. The aforementioned wedge is the 4th wave (corrective). What remains then is a 5th wave to complete the bearish pattern that ultimately makes a new low below 1.3495 (keep in mind that this analysis is longer term). However, a bounce within the large wedge is likely as the daily shows divergence with CCI (which is also increasing from below -100). Initial resistance is at the 8/29 high at 1.4289.
EURNZD From last week EURNZD has completed a head and shoulders pattern? H&S patterns often see price come back to test the neckline as resistance. This is what has happened today as the chart below illustrates. A daily close below the former support (now resistance) keeps the bias bearish. A push higher encounters resistance from the 8/14 high at 2.0272. A break below the 8/31 low at 1.9488 exposes the 38.2% fibo of 1.6320-2.1184 at 1.9329.
