European Stocks Rebound At Critical Support, Aim to Retest Resistance

Published April 23rd, 2009 - 07:44 GMT
Al Bawaba
Al Bawaba

Index Strat Risk Target
FTSE Flat    
DAX    Flat
   
CAC 40 Flat    


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FTSE 100                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

Long-term Technical Outlook





There is little change to the outlook for the FTSE 100. 5 waves down from the 2007 high are complete and A 3 wave advance is underway now. Near term, a B wave decline likely leads to a drop back to 3763.


Short-Term Technical Outlook


The FTSE has broken lower out of a rising channel but has found near-term support at the 100-day moving average and managed to return back above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The bulls now see the next hurdle at support-turned-resistance at the channel bottom (now at 406511).


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DAX 30                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

Long-term Technical Outlook





A 5 wave decline is also complete in the DAX. A B wave decline is expected near term and likely leads to a decline back to 4229 or even 3987.


Short-Term Technical Outlook




Unchanged: "German shares are putting in the makings of a double top below 47035 and moved sharply lower to find support at the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level. A break lower would meet substantial hurdles at the lower boundary of a rising channel and the 61.8% Fib."

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CAC 40                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 _


Long-term Technical Outlook




In examining the CAC 40 pattern from the 2007 high, it is possible to count 5 waves down with wave 5 as an ending diagonal. The diagonal is clear on this chart. 5th wave diagonals are almost always fully retraced fairly quickly. As is the case with other European indexes, expect a B wave decline, potentially back to 2719.


Short-Term Technical Outlook




French issues failed to stay above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, slipping to find support at the intersection of the 50% mark and the bottom of a rising channel. Near-term resistance at the 100-day moving average has been overcome and now price are looking back at the 61.8% level.

 
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IBEX 35                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                _


Long-term Technical Outlook




The rally from the low (6703) is most likely wave A in a 3 wave correction. Near term expectations are for a B wave decline to occur now, potentially bringing price back to Fibonacci support in the 7511-8059 zone before wave C completes the advance upwards of 10500-11500.


Short-Term Technical Outlook