Forex Technicals: The Day Ahead, August 14

Published August 14th, 2008 - 02:17 GMT
Al Bawaba
Al Bawaba

The majors began to recover against the USD today, which should continue into tonight and tomorrow.




Technical outlooks for the majors are released twice a day.  The morning version is released around 8:30-9:00 am EST and the evening version is released around 6:00 pm EST.

 

 








The NZDUSD may have already bottomed (temporarily).  .6970 should serve as strong short term support.  Over the next few days, the NZDUSD is expected to work higher into the .72-.74 zone.

 

 

The AUSUSD has fallen for 7 consecutive days and the count proposed above suggests that the AUDUSD will work higher near term; into the .8832-.8952 zone before completing the decline from .9849.  .8880 is the R2 pivot point and in the middle of that zone.      

 

 

We wrote yesterday that “very short term, the USDCAD has declined in 5 waves.  This warns of a top at 1.0726 (at least short term).  There is an opportunity to sell against 1.0726 and wait for a deeper decline to materialize over the next few days.”  After a deep retracement in wave 2, the USDCAD has come off and closed near the low of the day.  Expect a drop into the 1.0550 zone.

 

 

Our focus near term is on the topside of a short term channel.  The line continues to hold.  Expect a decline to at least 1.0741 near term.      

 

 

 

The GBPUSD has fallen now for 9 straight days.  A temporary low may be in place at 1.8639.  If so, then expectations are for a corrective advance to at least the 1.8920-1.9034 zone.   

 

 

 

After breaking a short term support line, the USDJPY just as quickly reversed and is now testing the underside of the former support line.  We still favor a deeper decline from 110.40, into the Fibo zone of 106.30-107.86.  As such the advance from 108.36 could be wave B in a correction from 110.40.  Resistance is at 110.00.

 

 

There is no change from yesterday.  “A 4th wave is most likely underway from 1.4814 as either a triangle or a flat.”  If wave 4 is a triangle, then the price extreme is already in place at 1.4981.  If a flat is unfolding, then the EURUSD will exceed 1.4981.  1.5083-1.5153 is resistance.