GBPJPY
GBPCHF
GBPAUD
Commentary – We wrote last week that “it appears that wave i of C is complete at 221.27 and that a corrective wave ii is underway now. Expect resistance near the 61.8% of 241.35-221.27 at 233.68 as well as the 11/14 high at 232.38.” This pattern is playing out as expected so there is no change to the outlook for a top near 232.38/233.68. That is the sell zone.
Strategy – Get bearish near 232.38/233.68, against 241.35, target 210.00
Commentary – We have been looking for a drop below 2.2602 in order to complete a larger 5 wave pattern. This is still possible but probably not before a push through 2.3359 and probably a test of 2.3525 (this is the 100% extension of 2.3602-2.3359/2.2767). The next level of potential resistance would not be until the breakdown point (former support) from October at 2.3789. 2.3088 should remain intact for this forecast to play out.
Strategy – Flat
Commentary – There is no change to the call for the GBPAUD decline to accelerate. “Larger wave 2 may be complete at 2.3887. A cautious bearish bias is warranted against 2.3887. As such, we are bearish and expect the decline to accelerate in wave 3 of a 5 wave bear cycle that began in August at 2.5640. Keep in mind that this pair broke a supporting trendline that dates to 1985 back in August and that the next major support level is not until below 2.0000.” Near term, the choppy decline from 2.3887 could be a series of 1st and 2nd waves.
Strategy – Bearish, against 2.3887, target TBD
