Japanese Yen forex positioning continues to forecast USDJPY declines, as retail forex speculators continue buying into the JPY pairs’ impressive tumbles. Our FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index is a contrarian indicator, as we historically see that the “crowd” is most often incorrect in its forecasts for direction across the majority of forex pairs. Indeed, our SSI indicator signaled that the forex trading crowd became net-long the USDJPY when it traded near 109—accurately forecasting that the pair would decline through subsequent trading.
Forex Trading Positioning in the US Dollar/Japanese Yen Pair
Currently, the ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.16 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.05 as 51% of open positions were long. Such a shift tells us that traders continue to buy into USDJPY declines, and indeed we see that USDJPY long positions are 5.4% higher than yesterday and 57.8% stronger since last week. All the while, USDJPY short positions are 4.4% lower than yesterday and 0.3% weaker since last week. When the crowd is long and continues buying, our SSI indicator gives a fairly robust signal to sell the USDJPY.
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