Japanese Yen Continues To Sink
British Pound Ready To Bounce
Swiss Franc Weakens With Euro
Canadian Dollar Challenging High
Australian Dollar Rejected at Resistance
New Zealand Dollar Needs A Correction
EUR/USD EUR/USD found minor support just above the 38.2% fibo of 1.1640-1.2976 at 1.2467 but the ensuing bounce made it to just 1.2510. Bullish divergence with momentum oscillators suggest that a continued bounce off of yesterdays low is a possibility. Resistance is at a downward sloping trendline from the 7/12 high at 1.2779 (the trendline is at about 1.2550/65). A break below yesterdays low could very well test the 50% fibo of 1.1825-1.2977 before a deeper correction of weakness takes the pair higher.
USD/JPY USD/JPY is relentless in its ascent and the pair has just pierced yesterdays high at 117.48. Still, the pair may have completed a 5 wave rally to 117.59 and therefore a correction would be due. The bearish divergence with oscillators at the last 5 intraday highs favor a correction. Notice that we mention correction though. The daily close above the trendline along with price andgt; the 200 day SMA favor a longer term bullish scenario. The last 8 days have seen USD/JPY soar from 113.42 to 117.58 but gains from current levels may not come as easy (this favors a correction) as the daily chart shows serious congestion (circled on chart) up until around 118.70. 118.71 is also the 78.6% fibo of 121.38-08.96.
GBP/USD Cable has held above the 1.8200 figure. Of the majors, the Pound has been the most resilient in the face of dollar strength. Yesterdays high was rejected just above the 38.2% fibo of 1.8539-1.8176 at 1.8315 (high was at 1.8328). The decline from 1.8328 has been choppy and another leg up would complete a 3 wave correction of the recent decline to 1.8176. The confluence of the 61.8% fibo of 1.8539-.8176 / point where wave 3 of the correction = wave 1 (1.8234 + (1.8328-1.8176) at 1.8386/1.8400. This is also where a resisting trendline (from the 1.9025 high) rests.
USD/CHF USD/CHF has rallied past former resistance from the 6/23 high at 1.2525. We mentioned yesterday that a break above the 1.2525 high would expose the 50% fibo of 1.3281-1.1919 at the psychological 1.2600 figure. With the break above 1.2525, 1.2600 is certainly in play but the 1/24 low at 1.2553 provides resistance at current levels. Like the other major pairs, the move up is extended and momentum is slowing as evidenced by divergence among oscillators and price. The 6/29 high at 1.2499 as well as the 6/20 high at 1.2435 provide support.
USD/CAD The USD/CAD looks to test the 7/12 high of 1.1398 and could form a short term double top as hourly oscillators remain bullish but are weakening. A subsequent correction may find the USD/CAD heading back towards support at yesterday 1.1304 low or 1.1261, the 38.2% fibo of 1.1039-1.1398. The bigger picture remains bullish following the break of the ascending triangle at 1.1283. The larger bullish picture is muddled only by a break below 1.1039. Prices above 1.1039 keep intact the series of higher lows.
AUD/USD We mentioned yesterday that AUD/USD was approaching resistance from the confluence of the 7/10 and 7/17 highs / 61.8% of .7565-.7464 at .7526/37. The proximity of this level and the ability of the pair to hold at this level previously offers favorable reward:risk opportunities. Yesterdays high came in at .7527 and the pair subsequently plummeted to below the .7450 level. The pair is currently testing support at the 38.2% fibo of .7270-.7565 at .7453. A bounce seems probable in the short term as RSI hovers above 30 on the hourly. Resistance comes in at the 38.2% fibo of .7565-.7440 at .7487 and just above at the confluence of the 50% fibo / short term resisting trendline at .7502.
NZD/USD Kiwi came off of the highs from yesterday at .6282 holding below the 61.8% fibo of .6443-.5927 at .6245 on a daily closing basis. As such, it is possible that NZD/USD is entering a period of consolidation to complete a corrective pattern following the recent rise. The pair is testing support at a short term supporting trendline / 6/21 high at .6222. If support holds, then a test of the .6282 high (yesterday) is possible. If the rise off of this support area is choppy, then it is likely that the pair is in corrective mode and that one more leg down, perhaps to the 38.2% fibo of .6025-.6282 at .6184, is needed. For more on NZD/USD, see last Fridays Weekly Chart Analysis at http://www.dailyfx.com/story/charting_center/weekly_chart_analysis/NZD_USD_Potential_Trendline_Break_Opportunity_1152891476833.html
Glossary of Terms
CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
andgt; 0 bullish
0 andgt; bearish
andgt; 100 extremely bullish
-100 andgt; - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
andgt; 50 bullish
50 andgt; bearish
andgt; 70 overbought
30 andgt; - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
andgt; 0 bullish
0 andgt; - bearish
Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
andgt; 0 bullish
0 andgt; - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* andgt; ATR(14) andgt; 25th percentile*
High - andgt; 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* andgt;
ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
andgt; 30 strong
30 andgt; - weak
*measured against past 3 months
