New Zealand Dollar: MAJOR Reversal Looms

The NZDUSD traded at its highest since 1982 today but there is reason to believe that a significant change in trend is near.  

The NZDUSD weekly chart shows the entire rally from the 2000 low to now.  A 5 wave advance occurred from the October 2000 low (.3897) to the March 2005 high (.7463).  Since then, it is our contention that an expanded flat is underway.  A 5 wave drop from .7463 to .5927 is wave A of that flat.  Wave B is underway now (as a complex corrective wave) and may be complete at today’s high of .8214.  Under this count, the NZDUSD would come under .5927 in a sharp wave C decline in the coming months.    

The 240 minute bar chart zooms in on what we are treating as wave Y of larger C.  Wave Y will probably end up as 3 waves (A-B-C).  Wave A was an impulse (wave 5 of A was an ending diagonal).  Wave B was a sharp that ended right at wave 4 of A.  Wave C has taken the form of an ending diagonal.  In an ending diagonal, each leg consists of 3 waves (a-b-c).  One reason to suspect that a top is in place now or very close is that wave 5 of the diagonal does consist of 3 waves right now.  Also, the top is right near the 61.8% extension of wave A.  Coming under .7474 supports increases confidence in this count.