Available figures for forthcoming fiscal years show a wide discrepancy in the underlying oil price assumptions adopted by some of the major oil producers.
The most conservative projection for the current fiscal year came from Kuwait at $13/B and the most optimistic from Syria at $24/B (see Table below).
However, some of this discrepancy is due to the fact that not all fiscal years correspond to the calendar one and hence some projections are for the year 2000.
For those countries which have ratified their 2001 budgets and which adopt the calendar year as the fiscal year (Algeria, Mexico, Nigeria, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Yemen), figures are more consistent with an average price for 2001 of $20.5/B.
It should be noted that not all countries disclose their official oil price assumptions – the figure for Saudi Arabia is a MEES extrapolation (see budget story MEES, 25 December 2000/1 January 2001) – and not all are conclusive. In Mexico, there is ongoing debate about the appropriateness of the $18/B assumption.
Luis Pazos, president of the Mexican lower house budget commission, said on 21 December that the country should assume prices of $16/B for the 2001 budget to avoid a fiscal deficit greater than 0.5 percent of GDP.
On 21 December, Mr Pazos’ said his concerns resulted from the drop in the price of Mexican crude on 20 December, when it fell to $17/B.
Oil Price Assumption For Selected Oil-Producing Countries(1)
Country Budget Oil PriceAssumption* $/B Oil PriceAverage (Est for 2000) Fiscal Year Notes
Algeria 19 (2001) 28.8 Calendar Year MEES, 3 April 2000
Indonesia 20 (2000) 28.8 1 April-31 December -
Kuwait 13 (2000/2001) 25.9 1 Jul 2000-31 Mar 2001(2) MEES, 11 September 2000
Mexico 18 (2001) 24.0 Calendar Year -
Nigeria 22 (2001) 28.5 Calendar Year -
Oman 18 (2001) 26.6 Calendar Year -
Qatar 15 (2000/2001) 27.6 31 March-1 April MEES, 17 April 2000
S Arabia 20-21 (2001) 25-27 Calendar year MEES, 1 January 2001
Syria 24 (2001) 25.0 Calendar Year 2001 Budget Approved
Venezuela 20** 26.3 Calendar Year MEES, 8 January 2001
Yemen 22 (2001) 28.2 Calendar Year MEES, 11 December 2000
(1) Figures are drawn from a variety of official and non-official sources.
(2) The subsequent fiscal year will comprise twelve months and run from 1 April-31 March.
* Budget oil price assumptions are based on the price of domestic crude.
** Oil price assumption for the 2001 budget of the state-owned oil company Petroleos de Venezuela.
(mees)
© 2001 Mena Report (www.menareport.com)
