Netflix Q1 Preview: $12.16B Revenue, 15% Growth

Netflix enters its first-quarter earnings in a notably different position compared to three months ago, with renewed investor focus on fundamentals following key strategic shifts, according to the latest market commentary from eToro.

Josh Gilbert, Market Analyst at eToro, highlighted that Netflix’s decision to walk away from the Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition in March has removed a major overhang for investors, while the resumption of its share buyback programme and recent US price increases have further reshaped sentiment around the stock.

“Netflix is heading into this earnings season with a cleaner narrative,” said Gilbert. “With the Warner deal off the table, investor attention can now return squarely to fundamentals and growth drivers.”

Netflix has guided for Q1 revenue of $12.16 billion, representing approximately 15% year-on-year growth, alongside earnings per share of $0.76. For the full year, the company expects revenue between $50.7 billion and $51.7 billion, with an operating margin of 31.5%, up from 29.5% in 2025.

Gilbert noted that the company’s previous earnings fell short of analyst expectations, particularly around forward guidance, placing added pressure on this quarter’s results.

“With $20 billion earmarked for content spend this year, the market will be looking closely at whether Netflix can sustain growth without eroding profitability,” he added.

A key area of focus for investors this quarter will be Netflix’s advertising business. Following a milestone of more than 325 million subscribers last quarter, the company’s advertising revenue more than doubled in 2025 to approximately $1.5 billion and is expected to double again to $3 billion this year.

“Advertising is quickly becoming a critical second revenue engine for Netflix,” Gilbert explained. “If Q1 results show the ad-supported tier remains on track, it strengthens the case that Netflix can drive higher-margin growth beyond subscriptions.”

With the Warner deal no longer a factor, the buyback programme back in motion, and its advertising business scaling rapidly, Gilbert believes Netflix has an opportunity to reinforce its leadership position in the streaming sector.

“This is a pivotal quarter for Netflix to remind the market why it continues to lead the streaming space,” he concluded.