The EURCHF continued to fall lower this week to reach a fresh low for 2009, and should hold its downward trend over the near-term as investors remain risk adverse.
Currency Pair: EUR/CHF
Chart: 60 Min Charts
Short-Term Bias: Bearish
Analysis Update
The EURCHF pushed higher over the last few hours of trading to close the gap from the moving average, but the lack of buying pressure to push the pair above the 120 SMA could lead the euro-franc lower over the remainder of the trading session. Over the remainder of the week, we may see the pair attempt to hold its current range however, if we see the pair fall back below 1.4640-50 (78.6% Fib), and breaks below 1.4600, I expected the pair to retrace the rise from the October low, and expect the pair to hold its bearish trend over the near-term as investors continue to curb their appetite for risky assets. Nevertheless, the fundamental event risks scheduled for the next 24 hours may call for a change in our outlook.
Analysis
The EURCHF continued to fall lower this week to reach a fresh low for 2009, and should hold its downward trend over the near-term as investors remain risk adverse. After slipping to a low of 1.4299 in October, the pair snapped back to reach a high of 1.5885 on 12/15, but the lack of momentum to retrace the sharp sell-off from December continues to favor a bearish forecast for the euro-franc. As a result, the pair should trend lower over the month, and we may see the EURCHF work its way towards the October low over the next few weeks to test for support. Over the next few hours of trading, we may see the pair attempt to push higher to cover the gap from the 120 SMA however, as the Swiss National Bank looks to conclude its easing cycle this week, long-term expectations for higher rate should lead the pair lower over the remainder of the week. Be sure to check out other Technical Reports from DailyFX for additional information on the major currency pairs.
To contact the author of this article, please email: dsong@fxcm.com
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