Weekly Outlook: Full Schedule Looks To Add Canadian Bullishness

Published June 3rd, 2006 - 01:10 GMT
Al Bawaba
Al Bawaba
Consolidating for the most part, the Canadian dollar continues to test the 28-year low at the 1.1000 figure as traders continue to use the currency pair as a proxy for crude oil speculation.  With the commodities for the most part rebounding from the previous technical correction, there was a lot of strength to be had over the shortened trading week.

The current price at 1.1007 rivals the 1.1078 figure seen at the beginning of the week.  Further indications of expansion, sprinkled throughout the week, should lend to further downside potential in the currency pair as economic reports are anticipated to side with the loonie bull.  Sparking off the weeks action will be the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index.  Printing a 55.7 figure in the month of April, the May report is expected to show an improvement on rising growth in the worlds ninth largest economy.  With consensus figures at 58 for the survey, sentiment is in line with positive gross domestic product that was witnessed last week, rising well above the estimate.  The economys growth prospects should be confirmed on continuous strength in the housing sector with starts rising to 220,000 units, keeping an uptrend against last months 218,000 unit climb.  The report should be reflective of continued strength in the consumer sector as a tight labor market keeps pace, maintaining consistency in the unemployment rate of 6.4 percent.  Subsequently, the net change in employment report is expected to climb by 20,000 new positions.  Setting aside lower results in the building permits and labor productivity reports, attention should mount for the international merchandise trade balance.  Although expected to still boast a surplus, the trade balance looks to have once again narrowed on rising import demand on the part of consumers and businesses looking to expand.  Adding to the declining figure looks to be ill effects of an appreciating domestic currency hurting the countrys exporters.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

Looking back on the week, and setting aside commodity speculation, data was rather optimistic for the Canadian denomination as economic reports purported further rate hike considerations by the Bank of Canada.  First off, after returning from the holiday weekend, market individuals were privy to industrial product price and raw materials price reports that reflected inflationary pressures.  According to the survey, industrial prices rose 1.3 percent, higher than expected and were reflective of base material prices, which soared 5.7 percent in the month of April.  The raw material survey jumped over double the consensus estimate and added to mounting sentiment that policy makers may have to opt for further increases on rising inflationary pressures.  However, taking the cake for the week, traders paid special attention to the gross domestic product figures for the first quarter.  Expected to rise by 3 percent, the figure actually jumped 3.8 percent in the quarter and trumped the previous 2.5 percent seen in the previous report.  The release was preceded by a better than expected current account figure, rising $10.7 billion for the first quarter.  With a stable economic infrastructure and rising energy costs, the loonie continues to remain bullish in the markets eye.

Date

Event

GMT

EST

Consensus

Previous

June 6

Building Permits (MoM) (Apr)

12:30

8:30

-2.8%

5.3%

June 6

Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (May)

14:00

10:00

58.0

55.7

June 8

Housing Starts (May)

12:15

8:15

220.0K

218.7K

June 8

New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Apr)

12:30

8:30

0.5%

1.0%

June 8

Labor Productivity (QoQ) (1Q)

12:30

8:30

--

0.5%

June 9

Unemployment Rate (May)

11:00

7:00

6.4%

6.4%

June 9

Net Change in Employment (May)

11:00

7:00

20.0K

22.0K

June 9

Intl Merchandise Trade (Apr)

12:30

8:30

C$5.0

C$5.1