1. CADJPY
2. CHFJPY
3. NZDJPY
CADJPY The CADJPY has continued to decline and closed below the 11/2 low and 200 day SMA on 11/17. The break below bolsters the bearish bias with focus now on the 8/11 low at 102.05. The 11/16 high at 103.77 is now resistance. A push above there would limit confidence in the downside. On the other hand, a two day close below the 200 day SMA would increase confidence in a downside directional bias. The 200 day SMA has been solid support since May.
CHFJPY The CHFJPY rally stalled yesterday at the 78.6% of 95.65-93.04 at 95.08. A short term supporting trendline from 10/17 keeps the short term bias a bullish one although RSI divergence on the 240 minute chart gives scope to a near term decline. That line is at 94.42 right now and increases about 6 pips per day. A drop below the supporting line encounters potential support at the 11/2, 10/18 and 9/15 lows at 93.59, 93.28, and 93.03. A break above the 8/31 high at 95.65 would shift focus to the 138.2% fibo of 95.65-93.03 at 96.64.
NZDJPY Since the beginning of October, NZDJPY has ranged between 77.37 and 79.47. The pair is at the upper end of that range, just below resistance from the 11/7 and 10/23 highs at 79.21/47. The 61.8% fibo of 97.04-67.76 at 79.65 reinforces resistance. 240 minute RSI is overbought and a decline below 70 would signal that a turn lower is possibly in the works. From a pure price perspective, a break below 78.70 would begin to suggest that a deeper decline was underway.
