The USDJPY has traded through the 200 day SMA and the 61.8% of 110.71-87.09 at 101. The next level of potential resistance is a resistance line drawn off of the July 2007 and August 2008 highs. That line is at 103.75 this week and decreases about 20 pips per week. Only a drop below 95.92 would suggest that a top is in place at this point. Although COT data warns of a sentiment extreme, psychology can remain one sided for some time. Weakness is what I am looking for, but until there are signs of such, it is dangerous to be short (especially with price holding above the 200 day SMA). Perhaps the 61.8% is the level that will lead to weakness.
