According to former Israeli military intelligence officer Tamir Hayman, Israel has twice in recent weeks nearly launched military strikes against Iran following strategic blunders. After careful consultation with the United States, the planned actions were finally halted.
In an interview with Israel's 103 FM radio station, Hayman said the occurrences demonstrated the extent of military cooperation between Washington and Tel Aviv as well as the severity of the current tensions surrounding Iran. While both military were on the verge of escalation before reevaluations resulted in restraint, he said that coordination between the two sides was at its best.
Although the specifics of the response are yet unknown, Hayman stated that he thinks the US would eventually take some kind of action against Iran. He listed a wide range of potential actions, such as influence campaigns, cyber operations, clandestine activities, targeted strikes, or a larger military conflict.
Recent events inside Iran, including the spread of rumors, unconfirmed claims, and videos, indicate that influence operations and cyber activities are already in progress, according to Hayman. He pointed out that these initiatives seem to be primarily focused on using digital platforms to cause internal disruption.
Iran's Political Future Is Uncertain
In response to conjecture over possible shifts in Iran's leadership, Hayman stated that unanticipated results had grown more likely. He cautioned that if the current structure failed, the Revolutionary Guard might gain greater authority and impose a stricter military-run administration.
Hayman also examined Iran's top decision-makers, characterizing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei as risk-averse and unlikely to support a full-scale conflict. But he warned that more forceful tactics might result from a change in leadership, especially if the Revolutionary Guard was involved.
There is still room for negotiations.
Hayman would not rule out resuming talks between the United States and Iran, despite mounting pressure on Tehran. He claimed that if Iranian officials made compromises on delicate matters like uranium enrichment, economic collapse and the lifting of sanctions may encourage dialog.
However, Hayman said that providing a political or economic lifeline to the Iranian leadership at this point may prolong the existence of a deteriorating system, which could postpone more significant regional upheaval.
Escalation Risk and Military Readiness
Regarding the possibility of Iranian reprisals, Hayman stated that Israel will react violently to any direct assault. He emphasized that close collaboration between Israel and the United States is still fueled by Iran's increased military readiness, which is a reflection of its fear of an Israeli surprise attack.
He went on to say that although not yet at the increased capacity anticipated before to recent conflicts, Iran has apparently resumed its military production lines, including the fabrication of missiles. He also mentioned the pressure from other countries to increase Tehran's capacity to produce weapons.
