After 7 Weeks Russia's Donbass Offensive: ENTERS DECISIVE PHASE

*By Rene Tebel

The change in Russian military strategy, with the massing of forces under the Donbass Offensive launched in mid-April, is now showing more significant results. Severodonetsk has so far been half taken by Russian forces and on two front lines the Russian army was able to break through the Ukrainian army's defenses in May. This is due to the Russian approach. The Russian army recalled its strength and occupied the contact lines with artillery shelling and bombardment for weeks until single sections of the front gave way. Thus it came about that around May 7 the Ukrainian defense lines at Popasna and around May 25-27 those at Lyman were breached.

Popasna bridgehead

Both Russian bridgeheads are of strategic importance. The one at Popasna can be used to control one of the two supply lines connecting Severodonetsk with the Ukrainian hinterland. Moreover, the northern Russian front is only about 21 kilometers away as the crow flies, so Ukrainian troops in the area around Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Zolote, and Hirske risk being completely surrounded.

According to Russia's Pravda, in an interview with Channel One, the deputy interior minister of the "Luhansk People's Republic" (LPR), Vitaly Kiselev, put the number of Ukrainian soldiers at up to 16,000.[3] According to the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, Valery Zaluzhny, there are about 2. 000 soldiers in Severodonetsk.

There, Russian troops had taken large parts of the city and surrounding localities at the end of May, but have since been pushed back both in the city and in the neighboring localities of Metolkine and Voronove.

However, the most important question arises in connection with further developments in this section of the front: The fighting in Severodonetzk once again reveals the weakness of the Russian infantry in house-to-house combat. Therefore, it is unclear whether Ukrainian troops will withdraw from the emerging encirclement or allow themselves to be trapped in neighboring Lysychansk in order to slow the Russian advance. This question is also likely to involve an assessment of when Western weapon systems will be available to the Ukrainians to target Russian positions, even at long range.

The Lyman bridgehead

After Russian forces failed to cross the Siverskyi Donets at several points in early May, the Russian army was able to break through Ukrainian lines at Lyman in late May. This bridgehead may threaten Slowansk and Kramatorsk in particular.

Formation of small cauldrons

Another strategy was hinted at by the militia chief of the so-called "Donetsk People's Republic," Eduard Basurin, in late May, when he spoke of creating small cauldrons. This approach is clearly evident in the Syvatohirsk region, where the city was initially surrounded on three sides after Russia was able to capture the two northern localities of Studenok and Sosnove earlier this week.

According to Russian sources, Syvatohirsk has already fallen. In the near future, the front between Studenok and Severodonezk is likely to correspond to the course of the Siverskyi Donets River, which the Russian army will attempt to cross with pontoon bridges at various points.

In the Severodonezk area, another small cauldron is being formed near Zolote. From Popasna, the Russian army succeeded earlier in the week in capturing Komyshuvakha, which lies to the northwest of Zolote, which is surrounded on three sides. To the northeast is Borove, which is likewise already surrounded on three sides.

Another cauldron is probably also being formed southwest of Popasna, where the Svitlodarsk area is being fought over.

Outlook

The battle in Donbass is entering the decisive phase. The Russian army has a window of opportunity in which it has superiority in artillery and, to some extent, air power in eastern Ukraine. Moreover, in recent weeks it has riped the front for attack, inflicting significant losses on the Ukrainian defenders through static warfare.

This could change in the summer, when the Ukrainian army can deploy modern Western weapons systems and the Ukrainians can, for example, disrupt the Russian supply line at Izyum and deploy long-range artillery.

*The author is the Editor of the Tebel Report in Austria. The views expressed in this article are not necessarily those of Al Bawaba News.