Big Guns on The Horizon: Lebanese-Israeli Dispute on The High Seas

An unexpected war in the Mediterranean may be in the offing. Although many are urging for 'cool heads', others like Hizbollah and Israel are enthusiastic about a fight if tempers should rise.

The subject is Lebanese-Israeli sea waters just off their palatial coasts deep to the East of the Mediterranean as both also have "economic zones" that stretch as far as to Cyprus. Neither Lebanon nor Israel are happy about their "maritime border" however, which is part of a long-running dispute about who should have what share and who shouldn't. This issue should have been long solved, in fact as early as 2012, but Lebanon continued to hold out for more sea gains.

The problem became more intractable over the years because it turned out this stretch of ocean water - a disputed area of 860 kilometers is full of oil and natural gas just waiting to be extracted with billions and billions of dollars for the having This is particularly eye-catching situation for Lebanon because its in desperate need of money to get it out of its current economic rut.

But this is not to forget that Israel also looks at the new bounty with economic delight and for the taking and they are not mincing words. For them its free energy that needs to be taken and exploited.

But this is easier said than done because of the politics, security and the decades of heartache and Israeli invasions of Lebanon regardless of the international treaties that were pegged to the area by the United Nations. There is no official relations between Lebanon and  Israel. There never have been since 1948 when the Israeli state was created and certainly is not on the point  of normalizing with Israel unlike other the Arab states tied to the Abraham accords.

However, since 2012, both countries, despite the much tension that has been beefed up in the past decades, at least since the 1970s, decided to talk through a third party - the Americans. They, Israeli and Lebanese politicians felt the Americans could be trusted to come out with a solution and although Washington come up with a plan and demarcated a "Lebanese-Israeli" maritime border through the so-called "Hoff line" via Fredrick Hoff, the then American envoy, this was never fully acknowledge by Beirut which continued to drag its feet over what is best for Lebanon.

Matters to a head 

What bought matters to a head was the Israeli Karish field which is full of natural gas. Lebanon quickly objected when Israel sought to start extracting to the full through a London company, Energean in early June 2022. Lebanese politicians, including President Michel Aoun and his caretaker Prime Minister blatantly argued that Israel can't start extracting because the Karish field is still in maritime waters that remains under dispute despite the marine water coordinates that keep changing. Initially Lebanon, excepted the dividing line at 23 degrees, later on it sought to alter it to 29, adding its square kilometer rights to 1430. 

This is the situation everyone is at presently. Line 29 means Lebanon has the right to go further down into the sea, a maritime area where the Karish field is located in and would further mean its in disputed treated territory.

In comes the Americans. Feeling the heat that Israel was going ahead, Beirut called on Washington, the original mediators between the Israelis and the Lebanese to see what can be done. Negotiations on the maritime border originally started at Naqoura, the place of the United Nations headquarters. Talks started in late 2020 through the Americans but the following year had been dropped because they led to nowhere. It is difficult to see who is more intransigent, the Lebanese or Israelis and who is really holding out since the area, the so-called Levantine basin, is estimated to hold billions of barrels of oil and gas. 

Now it seems the talks are re-starting again. Energy expert and US envoy Amos Hochstein is back in the area again talking to two sides and trying to narrow the views on shares and proportions and especially since the area has been divided into maritime blocs. It has become apparent during these talks, and according to Hochstein who only gives out morsels of information that Aoun and his team would be prepared to accept the drilling by the Israelis if they in turn accept Lebanese rights in the Qana field.

This field is also deemed to be plentiful with energy but lies within the disputed area which Israel controls and is argued to have lots of reserves of oil and gas. If Israel can be persuaded to give up this area then, both countries should start extracting and benefit. 

The pressure may now be on Lebanon for it is the politicians in Beirut called for the Americans to come in again. Clearly, they argue that more negotiations would be in their benefit but with Israel starting already to move towards exploration, the time could be running out. Their might not be so much time left. For their part as well, they already have signed contracts with international companies like the French giant Total, dubbed to be one of the "seven sisters" but these firms refuse to start work until things are settled between the Israelis and Lebanese. 

And it is difficult to see how they can start work with much saber-rattling between Hizbollah and Israel as the former positions itself as the protector of the energy resources of Lebanon. Time will tell!