By Navid Barani
Traced back to an initial case on November 17, 2019, COVID-19, more commonly referred to as the ‘coronavirus,’ is racing around the world and has since been labeled a global pandemic. Nations are fighting to catch up and contain it to the best of their abilities now, but missteps and missed opportunities abound in the battle to protect the lives of people around the world. And Iran is no exception.
Some nations imposed travel restrictions back in January, especially from China, the epicenter of the disease. Still, others were slow to react and even downplayed the severity of this pending virus. As recently as February 24, 2020, Iranian leaders downplayed the number of cases of coronavirus they had reported, with the Iranian Deputy Health Minister Iraj Hairichi going on live television to advise reporters that the government had complete control over the spread.
The next day it was reported that Hairichi had contracted coronavirus. In the weeks since reports have trickled out of the country that the situation is far graver than what the government had been detailing and admitting. According to a woman who was identified as a health worker in a hospital in Iran claimed (by audio file) that she had recorded 17 fatalities as a result of coronavirus in one day, even as the government was claiming only eight deaths occurred in the entire country.
Dr. Tabresi, an infectious disease specialist advised hospital staff, residents, and interns at the hospital he worked at if they wanted to leave, they should because within a few days they would be quarantined, likely for up to two months. He claimed that the fatality rate he was noticing was more than 50 percent because the hospitals were ill-equipped to treat the number of patients they were seeing.
It has also been reported that Iran has a limited supply of testing kits as well as disinfectants, which is helping to provide easier transmission of the virus from one person to the next, even in hospital settings.
Some have reported cover-ups at the government level. One such case stems from a resident at Khomeini Hospital. This resident claimed that a patient who tested positive for COVID-19 was subsequently transferred to another hospital in Rasht, after which official announcements claimed that no one had tested positive in the province where Khomeini Hospital is located.
The regime has consistently lied to the people of Iran as well as the rest of the world. Critics claim that the Iranian government should have taken stronger measures early on rather than trying to deflect and deceive its people. To date, they still have not shut down travel and only advise people to stay home. Unfortunately, large droves of people are ignoring the warnings as heavy traffic is reported leading up to the region’s New Year holiday event.
This portends to the notion that things will continue to escalate and more Iranians will contract coronavirus. The Iranian government continues to blame external forces, namely the United States and the sanctions it has imposed, for the failure of their health care system. Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif claimed that US sanctions have “drained Iran’s economic resources.” While the US denies those sanctions are restricting the ability of the Iranian government to obtain medical supplies, some Iranian companies are having difficulty receiving payments because banks are worried about violating the sanction rules.
Many other countries, including China, Germany, Turkey, the UAE, Qatar, and Russia, among others, have sent aid packages to Iran. Yet, the reigning government has still not decided to shut down travel and order people to stay at home. They have ordered certain businesses, including bazaars and shopping centers to close down for 15 days and have since ordered key religious sites to close, but there is anticipation for an influx of Shia Muslim pilgrims to flock to holy sites.
On top of all this, a high number of senior government officials have contracted coronavirus. There is a higher rate of government figures contracting COVID-19 in Iran than any other country in the world.
Even parking lots, stadiums, and wedding banquet halls have been converted to field hospitals to handle the increase of patients who have been diagnosed with coronavirus. It’s unclear whether citizens will heed the seemingly desperate warnings of various officials to not travel during the upcoming Persian New the Year, with a top Iranian official claiming that doing so was like “inviting death.”
Just a few short months ago the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp brutally crushed anti-government protests, killing 176 people. Now, some are hoping that the Guard will enforce quarantines.
Government leaders are being heavily criticized for poor judgment, incompetence, and flat-out deception regarding coronavirus and that is having a rippling effect among the citizens of the country, including business owners who are directly feeling the economic impact of these devastating shortcomings and missteps.
On March 12, 2020, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a written order for the commander-in-chief of the Joint Armed Forces, Major General Mohammed Bagheri, to take charge. While the order on the surface is to work with the civilian government, the instructions are clear: take charge.
A quick view of social media posts from citizens in Iran shows marked celebration as members of parliament and senior regime officials contract coronavirus and even as some of them succumb to it. There is a growing sentiment that this may be an opportunity to overthrow the regime.
For example, when the regime finally padlocked two popular shrines, one in Qom and the other in Mashhad, crowds gathered and ultimately stormed the shrines, breaking down the doors and overrunning security forces. Yet no shots were fired and Iranians were quick to point out the double standard; security forces shot unarmed protesters last November but had no desire to open fire on “religious zealots.” As one religious and political activist stated in a Twitter post, “Corona has peeled off the layers of skin to expose them for who they really are.”
This may just be the beginning, but could coronavirus be the catalyst that marks regime change in Iran?
Navid Barani is a Foreign Affairs Consultant.
"The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of Al Bawaba News"
