Ukraine War: Politics, Bombs and Negotiations

Ukraine is on the offensive after one month of Russian bombardment. Their troops are pushing forward and retaking cities as is the case in Irpin where fighting has gone on for weeks. By contrast, it can't be said Russian troops are now on the defensive.

It would be wrong to say they are pulling back as they are now missiling Ukraine cities from the air and 'redeploying' which may mean they are coming back for more. 

 
Still, the strategic equation might be changing. Russia is losing much in the war, losses which it may not have forecasted when it started its military intervention last 24 February. Its losing soldiers, tanks, some planes and artillery, something which was not expected in the beginning of the war.  It would be pointless to provide figures because they change almost daily but they are hefty.

It is this changing equation that may have forced its delegates to sit again with the Ukraine team in Istanbul this time around rather than in Belarus, a pro-Moscow ally which has already been the place of three prior meetings in the last month but which resulted in deadlock and mere political tinkering. 

Could the present meetings in Istanbul be more positive and provide greater chances of success, resulting in a possible ceasefire. Many are keeping their hands on their chest and in spite of the fact Turkey is seen as an honest broker by the warring parties. It has already played a host to a meeting between Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and the Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba  in Antalya on 10 March but led to nowhere despite the fact it endured for an hour and 30 minutes. 

Regardless, the Turkish president Racep Tayyip Erdogan and his Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu are today seeking to mediate an end to the conflict between the warring parties. Different vibes have come out of the Istanbul meetings. There are elements of optimism, yet there is trepidation and unwillingness to take a bet judging from the previous three meetings which ended in a sort of "nothing ventured, nothing gained" state-of-affairs with the Ukrainian side saying the Russian delegates are not serious. 

This time it appears to be different. The Biden administration continues to be pessimistic and are skeptical that the meetings will lead to the end of the conflict. Joe Biden himself has been vociferous  of the Russian president Vladimir Putin calling different antagonistic names as a 'butcher', 'murderer' and a 'war criminal' clearly beyond the bounds of diplomatic address between world leaders and clearly irritated people within his own constituency and leaders like French president Emmanuel Macron who says this is not helpful to finding a  political solution.

But Biden shot back, saying his views are "personal" and doesn't reflect policy which is to stay away from the war, rather anger at the Russian president. In this regard Putin, seems to be moving away from some of the previous stances somewhat and this is reflected in the Istanbul meetings.

Russian delegates are now saying, according to reports, that Ukraine may join the EU if it wants, something which Kiev has applied for membership but there are conditions, some of the which has already been agreed to be Volodymyr Zelensky about Ukraine neutrality, possession of nuclear weapons and not joining NATO or having any of its troops on its soil. 

However, there are still tricky points that need to be resolved and that is the question of Luhansk and Donetsk which recently split from Ukraine and recognized by Moscow as well the issue of Crimea which was annexed to Russia in 2014. These continue to be sticking points but can still be resolved. 

This is because Zelensky has long been calling for the end of the war and has been sending direct, open messages to Putin that he would like a meeting with the Russian leader to end the war, there has been far too much destruction in Ukraine despite the fact that Russian soldiers may have got a bloody nose and many Russians are campaigning for an end to the war but we are yet to see.

There are hopes in the Istanbul meetings but even if there are drafts, they are yet to be approved by the respective governments in Moscow and Kiev and there would be lots of going back-and-forth for meetings and finalizations that have to be approved by the two foreign ministers, Lavrov and Kuleba with a final meeting between Putin and Zelensky.

 
But there is a still a long we to go. One good thing, regardless of how tenuous it is, is that Russia says it has scaled down its military action over Ukraine cities. There are still bombardments but not as intense as before. Although media reports on the ground say the "noise" around them is still at a high pitch.

Another thing, Zelensky insists that any deal reached with Putin should have international backing where western states would come to their aid, if Russia violates any agreement.
There might be some time before that happens however, although some are hopeful that it could be done very quickly.