Why is Iraqi Politics in Chaos?

What will happen to Iraqi politics now 73 of its parliamentarians resigned from the legislative assembly? This is what happened recently at a stroke of a pen. The parliamentarians belonging to the Sadrists bloc all submitted their resignations in one full swoop as per the orders of their Shiite, non-Iranian supporter leader Muqtada Al Sadr. 

Unprecedented, a huge step, turning Iraqi assembly politics upside down, never has been done before, well not since 2003 when the Americans came into the country and in another dramatic action got rid of Saddam Hussein and his long-time Baathist rule. Now is different though. The Sadrists took this step because they Iraq political system has refused to function and move forward.

Ever since the last parliamentary elections on 10 October 2021, Iraq has been without a government. The blocs and parties - the majority Shias, the Sunnis and the Kurds have refused to come together and choose an executive for the country. This would include a presidential figurehead, a prime minister and a government that would start ruling the country and putting it in order.

Today, and eight months later, the country is still run by a caretaker prime minister Mustahpa Al Khadhimi, who doesn't have the practical tools and legislative back up to rule the country simply because the newly-elected deputies would refuse to turn up in the last months at the 329-man assembly, while making it inquorate, unable to vote and in a slumber state. 

The Sadrists - being the largest group in parliament with their Sunni and Kurdish allies - don't want him there but they can't do anything about it because every time they called for a vote, the other MP's mostly Shia like the Sadrists, wouldn't turn up, and thus continuing stalemate, locked up situation holding up government business, you can't move forward, but can only stay remaining at the station in frustrating limbo.

Standing in their way is what is called the pro-Iran Coordination Framework and which is a motely collection of Shiite parties and allies some of whom drastically decreased their support in the  last elections but are still backed by the well-armed Al Hashd Al Shaabi which was supposedly integrated into the Iraqi army but practically still operates as an independent militia for these parties.

The withdrawal of the Al-Sadr bloc from parliament - and which many still see as a tactical move to go to their hefty street supporters - is still music to the ears of the  Coordination Framework. Under the Iraqi constitution anyone withdrawing from his parliamentary seat, automatically passes on to the second candidate in the last polls. Thus analysts are saying the existing parties will end up dividing the vacant seats among themselves subject to off course who is the winning candidate.

Many of these have suffered badly in the last elections. The pro-Iran Fatah Alliance for instance,  only got 17 seats, a crushing defeat from the 48 MPs they had in the 2018 elections.

So  they are hoping and expecting to get back into government, providing one is formed. The Coordination Framework that is joined by other blocs like the one led by Nuri Al Malki's State of Law Coalition which has 31 seats, is now expecting to join the government providing parliament agrees and votes on a new government regardless of the time limits the constitution puts puts on for forming a government. These limits have been ignored in the past as well as now which effectively means the constitution is "stretched" according to the interested political parties. 

But, its early days yet. Even if the Coordination Framework get their act together and turn up for an assembly vote which is what they want now, no one is quite sure what the Sunni parliamentary speaker Mohammad Al Halbousi would do at this stage. He controls 37 seats while the Kurdistan Democratic Party 31 seats and they have been allied with the Sadrist bloc who are theoretically no longer in politics.

Halbousi is a pragmatic man who had long been in politics as Governor of the Anbar Province, a county which had been ravaged by ISIS prior to 2018. Well he likely now throw in the towel and join the Shiite-dominated Coordination Framework for the interest of getting the legislature moving?

Iraqi politics may not be that easy to fathom. While the Sadrist bloc may have left parliament, many suggest they are going back to the street where they have mass support and thus the resigned deputies are likely to direct parliamentary politics from the ground upwards which very likely means force another general elections that would be the 6th poll since 2003.

We wait and see! But one worrying development in all this is Al Hashd Al Shabi. How are they likely to react on the street. Is Iraqi set for a period of more violence?