-AUDCHF tests channel resistance
-AUDCAD and AUDNZD close in on 200 day SMAs
Australian Dollar / Swiss Franc
The triangle pattern that I have been writing about is still valid but the push above Elliott channel resistance is not a good sign for bears. To recap: “A triangle that as been underway since late October in the AUDCHF is likely complete at the Feb. 9 high of .7951. Weakness and a break below the October low of .6926 is expected over the next several weeks. At this point, the AUDCHF should stay below .7656.” Price blew through .7656. A rally above .8195 would negate the triangle and shift focus to .8350; which is the 50% retracement of the decline from 1.0047.
Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar
Since the October low at .7148, AUDCAD trade has been choppy and corrective. Both the advance from .7148 to .8695 and the decline from .8695 to .7719 are corrective. However, the recent rally has picked up steam and price is closing in on the 200 day SMA. A push through there exposes the top of the range at .8695. The near term bull trend is intact as long as price is above .8338.
Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar
I wrote last week that “the AUDNZD is expected to roll over. Favor the downside.” The pair has dropped some 400 pips from the top and additional weakness is likely given that the advance from 1.0603 is in 5 waves and wave 5 of that advance is extended. 1.1632 is the bottom of the 4th wave and near the 50% of 1.0603-1.2954 at 1.1720, which is the target area. Near term, it is possible that the pair puts in a short term low (nearing 200 day SMA at 1.22) and trades back to 1.2579, albei in a corrective manner.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
Please send comments about this report to jsaettele@dailyfx.com
