Euro finally stalls out but still confined to Thursday range. Dollar/Yen poised for fresh upside extension. Cable well capped for now ahead of 100-Day SMA. Dollar/Swiss should be supported in the 1.1200’s. Dollar/Cad propped above 100-Day SMA. Australian Dollar contemplates bear trend resumption. New Zealand Dollar sell recommendation issued; revised from earlier.
EUR/USD
| EUR/USD – Has shown impressive upside follow through this week following the previous weekly bullish reversal and the market is now officially in the process of a material correction within the broader downtrend. While daily studies have now reached overbought, the weekly technicals show more room to run and we look for additional upside into the 1.3850-1.4000 area into next week. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. |
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USD/JPY
| USD/JPY – The market has now reached its measured move objective off of the head & shoulders top by 99.70, and after slightly exceeding the previous 2009 high/major double bottom neckline by 94.60 to 93.55, should finally find some support. There is a confluence of support by Thursday’s low in the form of the previous double bottom neckline, the 50% fib retrace off of the 87.15-99.70 move and the 50/100-Day SMAs. As such we would look for a fresh medium-term higher low to carve out ahead of the next major upside extension beyond 100.00. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. |
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GBP/USD
| GBP/USD – Although the pair has now broken back above the 50-Day SMA, rallies above the moving average have proved to be fleeting since the onset of the major downtrend back in August 2008. The overall structure is still grossly bearish and a break back above the 1.4990 medium-term lower top from February 9 would ultimately be required to shift the structure. Daily studies however still show room to run with the next key resistance coming in by the 100-Day SMA at 1.4660. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
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USD/CHF
| USD/CHF – The latest sharp pullbacks below 1.1315 have signaled an end to the multi day range and opened the door to the current drop back to 1.1165 thus far. However, the pair should find some decent support at current levels in the form of the 50% fib retracement off of the 1.0370-1.1970 move (1.1170) and the 200-Day SMA (1.1200). Look for a rebound from current sub-1.1500 levels back into the familiar range next week. Below 1.1165 negates. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
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