ALBAWABA - According to a Bloomberg report, the chances of a wider military conflict between the US and Iran are rising. The report warns that the situation could escalate from limited strikes to a long-lasting and unpredictable war.
The report says that the current course is a “high-stakes gamble” bet for both Washington and Tehran, and neither side is sure to gain any clear strategic advantages if hostilities escalate.
Washington is under more and more pressure.
The study suggests that President Donald Trump may be in a tough spot because he pulled out of the nuclear deal in 2015. That choice made the U.S. demands on Iran much higher, which could make it harder to be flexible in negotiations.
Two U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups are stationed near the area, and each one costs millions of dollars a day to run. Observers say that the visible buildup of troops may put more pressure on the administration to act quickly instead of looking uncertain. Trump has already said that diplomatic progress needs to happen in about 10 to 14 days.
Iran's Numbers
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, has his own strategic concerns to deal with. According to Bloomberg's analysis, Tehran may think that fighting is better than agreeing to the broad disarmament terms that Washington and Israel want. At the same time, there are still a lot of problems at home after protests and economic problems in Iran.
People in the United States also seem to be careful about what they think. The analysis cites recent polls that show that a large majority of Americans do not want to go to war with Iran and want Congress to approve any military action first.
Risks in the Region and for Strategy
The report talks about Israel's worries about Iran's nuclear and missile programs, which could mean that Israeli leaders think they need to take action. But it warns that changing or removing Iran's leaders could have unintended effects, such as making the region less stable and making it unclear who will take over.
The analysis also asks if Washington has made its goals clear. Goals could include getting a stronger nuclear deal, changing the government, or taking away Iran's military power. The report contends that in the absence of clear strategic direction, skepticism both domestically and internationally is likely to endure.
Ask for Clear Goals
Bloomberg tells U.S. officials to clearly explain why they might use military force, especially since there isn't clear international legal support for it. It compares the current situation to past wars and stresses the need for clear goals and congressional involvement.
As diplomatic efforts continue under more and more pressure, the next few days will be very important in deciding whether tensions ease off or move toward a bigger fight that could have big effects on the region and global markets.
