The war may be paused, but we expect several effects to linger across four fronts: energy pricing, shipping/logistics, inventories, and market risk premia. Even after a ceasefire, Hormuz does not normalize overnight. Market prices adjust much faster than physical flows, and shipping firms may need time just to regain confidence, with port activity taking about two months to normalize. Inventory rebuilding then takes longer still: energy analysts estimate roughly four months to restore OECD stocks to a more comfortable level. So today’s market euphoria is understandable, but it is more ...